Goldman Sachs Analysis Shows Minimal AI Impact on 2025 US GDP Growth

Economic Analysis Challenges AI Growth Narrative

Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius stated in an interview with the Atlantic Council that AI investment spending had "basically zero" contribution to U.S. GDP growth in 2025. This contradicts earlier analyses from other economists and challenges the narrative that massive AI investments are driving economic expansion.

Key Findings from the Analysis

• Import Offsets: Much of the equipment powering AI is imported, meaning U.S. company spending on chips and hardware adds to Taiwanese and Korean GDP rather than U.S. GDP in calculations.
• Measurement Challenges: There's currently no reliable way to accurately measure how AI use among businesses and consumers contributes to economic growth.
• Productivity Gap: A survey of nearly 6,000 executives in the U.S., Europe, and Australia found that despite 70% of firms actively using AI, about 80% reported no impact on employment or productivity.

Contrasting Views and Investment Context

Earlier analyses presented different perspectives: Harvard economics professor Jason Furman said investments in information processing equipment and software accounted for 92% of GDP growth in the first half of the year, while Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis economists estimated AI-related investments made up 39% of GDP growth in Q3 2025.

Major tech companies including Meta, Amazon, Google, and OpenAI spent billions on AI investments in 2025, with expectations to spend roughly $700 billion this year on new data centers for training and running advanced models.

Goldman Sachs analyst Joseph Briggs noted the intuitive appeal of the AI growth story may have "prevented or limited the need to actually dig deeper into what was happening."