Google's TimesFM 2.5: 200M-parameter time-series model with 16k context

What's New in TimesFM 2.5
Google Research has updated their TimesFM (Time Series Foundation Model) to version 2.5. This is a decoder-only foundation model specifically designed for time-series forecasting, with the paper published at ICML 2024.
Key Technical Changes
Compared to TimesFM 2.0, the 2.5 model includes several significant updates:
- Parameter count reduced from 500M to 200M
- Context length increased from 2048 to 16k
- Added support for continuous quantile forecast up to 1k horizon via an optional 30M quantile head
- Removed the frequency indicator
- Added new forecasting flags
- Added back covariate support through XReg (as of Oct. 29, 2025 update)
Installation and Setup
The repository is actively being updated with plans for a Flax version for faster inference, more documentation, and notebooks. Current installation requires:
git clone https://github.com/google-research/timesfm.git
cd timesfm
# Create virtual environment with uv
uv venv
source .venv/bin/activate
# Install with torch
uv pip install -e .[torch]
# Or with flax
uv pip install -e .[flax]
# Or with XReg support
uv pip install -e .[xreg]
Basic Usage Example
Here's the basic forecasting workflow from the source:
import torch
import numpy as np
import timesfm
torch.set_float32_matmul_precision("high")
model = timesfm.TimesFM_2p5_200M_torch.from_pretrained("google/timesfm-2.5-200m-pytorch")
model.compile(timesfm.ForecastConfig(
max_context=1024,
max_horizon=256,
normalize_inputs=True,
use_continuous_quantile_head=True,
force_flip_invariance=True,
infer_is_positive=True,
fix_quantile_crossing=True,
))
point_forecast, quantile_forecast = model.forecast(
horizon=12,
inputs=[
np.linspace(0, 1, 100),
np.sin(np.linspace(0, 20, 67)),
], # Two dummy inputs
)
Output shapes:
point_forecast.shape → (2, 12)
quantile_forecast.shape → (2, 12, 10): mean, then 10th to 90th quantiles.
Model Availability
The model is available through multiple channels:
- GitHub repository: google-research/timesfm
- Hugging Face collection for all checkpoints
- TimesFM in BigQuery as an official Google product (note: this open version is not officially supported)
- Older versions (1.0 and 2.0) archived in the v1 subdirectory
For developers working with time-series data, this represents a significant update in parameter efficiency and context handling compared to previous versions. The addition of continuous quantile forecasting provides more detailed uncertainty estimates, which is valuable for production forecasting systems.
📖 Read the full source: HN AI Agents
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